I wrote the first draft of this Rant on June 22d, the 84th anniversary of the biggest mistake Adolf Hitler ever made, one that sealed his fate: Operation Barbarossa, the Nazi invasion of the Soviet Union. Just a few hours before, Donald Trump threw the dice on a similar impulse, going to war with an unpredictable Iran. Trump is not exactly one to concern himself with unintended consequences. He lives in the moment and for the moment. Everything he does is filtered through the question: How will this benefit ME? Secondarily, how might it benefit my mentor/hero, Vladimir Putin.
In this case, the benefit to Trump is to make him appear to be a strong man. The benefit to Putin could be a rising oil price, oil being the only commodity Russia can sell and on which the entire Russian economy depends. Trump has possibly done his pal a great mitzvah. Should Iran do something like close the Straits of Hormuz to tanker traffic, oil prices will go through the roof. Happy Vlad!
Strangely, the first reaction of the global oil market was to see oil prices plummet, presumably because the oil moguls in Rotterdam are at the moment relieved that Iran has not closed the Straits of Hormuz through which 20 percent of the world’s oil supply passes daily. This narrow waterway connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman.
There is no way of knowing just how effective U.S. airstrikes have been on Iran’s three principal nuclear weapons development sites—Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan. Mindful that a U.S. air attack on its nuclear sites was a high probability, it is inconceivable that Iran did not move out its centrifuges and enriched uranium stockpiles in anticipation of their targeting. In which case our bombing run likely achieved very little, perhaps setting back Iran’s determined push toward developing a nuclear weapon by a few months.
Trump’s triumphal comments about “complete obliteration” of Iran’s nuclear program are just his usual hyperbole and lies with no basis in fact. When he said that, no bomb damage assessment had yet been conducted and analyzed. The day after the attack, both Defense Secretary Hegseth and Joint Chiefs Chairman Caine were much more hesitant to declare this a smashing victory. Trump unsurprisingly has learned nothing from George W. Bush’s “Mission Accomplished “debacle. Of course the idea of learning anything whatsoever from history is to Trump a totally alien concept. This was the first-ever deployment of our “bunker-buster” bomb. There is a long history of first use of a new weapon that does not meet expectations—see, e.g., World War II torpedos; the Bradley Fighting Vehicle, and the Divad anti-tank weapon.
A few days later, Trump could not resist turning his new war into a frivolity, posting a 1980s video titled “Bomb, Bomb Iran” to the tune of the iconic hit song, “Barbara Ann.”
One of the things Trump’s precipitate act did accomplish was to put the 40,000 U.S. troops in six countries in the Middle East in harm’s way. Iran so far has executed only a token retaliation, sending a few ineffective missiles against our Qatar base. Beyond this, Trump’s new war puts all Americans wherever they may be in jeopardy. Iran is the poster child for international terrorism. First up on its target list might be the prominent Americans it has publicly threatened—people like Trump’s first-term Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and National Security Advisor John Bolton—whose Secret Service protection Trump terminated. Next up are all the rest of us. Iranian sleeper cells are embedded throughout the world, likely including the U.S. If they are activated, watch out. Are you comfortable with the thought of deeply flawed Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, and equally pathetic, way out of any league Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, Peter-principled FBI Director Kash Patel and stunningly unqualified and inept Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth as protectors-in-chief?
Assuming that Iran has moved its nuclear development “arsenal” to new, secret locations the bombing may only increase its determination to proceed to bomb development ASAP. Iran will now kick out all of the International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors, whose last inspection was on June 10th. Thus it will become more difficult to know what is going on with its bomb development program
Make no mistake. Anyone (viz. Gabbard) who believes that Iran is not on a path to a nuclear weapon is delusional. A country does not increase its number of centrifuges 10-fold, stockpile 900 lbs of enriched uranium, not use an ounce of that to fuel its one civilian nuclear reactor (that fuel comes from Russia), absent a commitment to develop a nuclear weapon. The consequence of the Israeli//U.S. attacks is to fuel that incentive. Moreover, the virtual elimination of Iran’s Middle Eastern proxies—Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Syria’s Assad regime, means it is now alone, with all of the implications of desperation that implies.
Iran’s Russian ally said on June 23 that several countries have come forward to announce that they could supply Iran with nuclear weapons. True or not, this is discomfiting to hear.
Tehran’s aging theocratic regime’s singular obsession is now survival. However, risking an all-out war with the U.S. would not be conducive to continuing in power. At a minimum, Iran is more likely to launch cyberattacks against U.S. computer systems and facilities such as the electric grid, power plants, and other utilities.
While both Jerusalem and Washington are experiencing fever dreams of regime change in Tehran, that is unrealistic for the moment. I don’t see crowds of demonstrators protesting the regime in the Iranian streets. Instead, huge crowds of nationalistic demonstrators are marching in support of the regime. Moreover, if there was a regime change, we cannot know if the newbies might not be worse than the Ayatollahs.
Our Middle Eastern military forays have produced mixed results, dating from the CIA-induced regime change in Iran in 1953, when Mohammed Mossadegh was removed from power and replaced by the Shah. A quarter century later, that did not work out so well for us, per the Islamic Revolution and the taking of American hostages. Desert Storm was a success. George W. Bush’s invasion of Iraq was a disaster. Afghanistan did not go well. So here we are again, unable to get the region out of our heads.
Back home, Trump did not brief Democratic lawmakers before launching his new war. While there is value in criticizing Trump’s precipitate act, Democratic kicking and screaming about this being a violation of the War Powers Act is a lot of stürm und drang signifying nothing. Presidents all too often have gone to war on their own initiative without asking for congressional blessing beforehand. The last time Congress declared war was in 1942 against Hungary, Bulgaria and Romania. Since then, the feeble best that Congress could do was to pass resolutions blessing presidential action. The 1964 Gulf of Tonkin Resolution, for example, served LBJ and Richard Nixon as justification for the Vietnam War, notwithstanding that it was based on a lie. Haranguing about Trump not going to Congress for a war declaration is an unserious Talmudic debate of little relevance.
Congressional Republicans as usual have acquitted themselves shamefully and cowardly — their silence is deafening.
More worthy of criticism, Trump did this on his own, not consulting our long-time allies, now I guess our enemies?
This is a huge gamble for Trump. America’s wars against Middle Eastern midgets in Iraq and Afghanistan took eight and 20 years, respectively to resolve. Iran is a military powerhouse compared to those two countries. I have no doubt that Trump and his gang of unqualified incompetents have not considered any of this before rushing into war.
Corrupdate.
“Too many non-working holidays in America. It is costing our Country $BILLIONS OF DOLLARS to keep all of these businesses closed,” he wrote. “It must change if we are going to, MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!”
–Donald Trump, Juneteenth, 2025
Oh, the irony!
This from the hands-down laziest president, if not human being, in recorded history. He waddles off to play golf on weekends at enormous expense to taxpayers after doing next to no work during the work week. He arrives at the Oval Office in late morning at the earliest, sits around for a few hours tuned into Fox News before resting from his labors. He rarely bothers to read the absolutely essential Presidential Daily Brief (PDB) which, during his first failed term (1) had to go from its usual length to just 1 page to accommodate his limited attention span, (2) was altered from text to primarily images so he would not have to strain his Australopithicine brain, and (3) this time around must contain his name liberally sprinkled throughout what remains of the detritus of the document.
Sheesh!
Dick Hermann
June 26, 2025
In this case, the benefit to Trump is to make him appear to be a strong man. The benefit to Putin could be a rising oil price, oil being the only commodity Russia can sell and on which the entire Russian economy depends. Trump has possibly done his pal a great mitzvah. Should Iran do something like close the Straits of Hormuz to tanker traffic, oil prices will go through the roof. Happy Vlad!
Strangely, the first reaction of the global oil market was to see oil prices plummet, presumably because the oil moguls in Rotterdam are at the moment relieved that Iran has not closed the Straits of Hormuz through which 20 percent of the world’s oil supply passes daily. This narrow waterway connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman.
There is no way of knowing just how effective U.S. airstrikes have been on Iran’s three principal nuclear weapons development sites—Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan. Mindful that a U.S. air attack on its nuclear sites was a high probability, it is inconceivable that Iran did not move out its centrifuges and enriched uranium stockpiles in anticipation of their targeting. In which case our bombing run likely achieved very little, perhaps setting back Iran’s determined push toward developing a nuclear weapon by a few months.
Trump’s triumphal comments about “complete obliteration” of Iran’s nuclear program are just his usual hyperbole and lies with no basis in fact. When he said that, no bomb damage assessment had yet been conducted and analyzed. The day after the attack, both Defense Secretary Hegseth and Joint Chiefs Chairman Caine were much more hesitant to declare this a smashing victory. Trump unsurprisingly has learned nothing from George W. Bush’s “Mission Accomplished “debacle. Of course the idea of learning anything whatsoever from history is to Trump a totally alien concept. This was the first-ever deployment of our “bunker-buster” bomb. There is a long history of first use of a new weapon that does not meet expectations—see, e.g., World War II torpedos; the Bradley Fighting Vehicle, and the Divad anti-tank weapon.
A few days later, Trump could not resist turning his new war into a frivolity, posting a 1980s video titled “Bomb, Bomb Iran” to the tune of the iconic hit song, “Barbara Ann.”
One of the things Trump’s precipitate act did accomplish was to put the 40,000 U.S. troops in six countries in the Middle East in harm’s way. Iran so far has executed only a token retaliation, sending a few ineffective missiles against our Qatar base. Beyond this, Trump’s new war puts all Americans wherever they may be in jeopardy. Iran is the poster child for international terrorism. First up on its target list might be the prominent Americans it has publicly threatened—people like Trump’s first-term Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and National Security Advisor John Bolton—whose Secret Service protection Trump terminated. Next up are all the rest of us. Iranian sleeper cells are embedded throughout the world, likely including the U.S. If they are activated, watch out. Are you comfortable with the thought of deeply flawed Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, and equally pathetic, way out of any league Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, Peter-principled FBI Director Kash Patel and stunningly unqualified and inept Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth as protectors-in-chief?
Assuming that Iran has moved its nuclear development “arsenal” to new, secret locations the bombing may only increase its determination to proceed to bomb development ASAP. Iran will now kick out all of the International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors, whose last inspection was on June 10th. Thus it will become more difficult to know what is going on with its bomb development program
Make no mistake. Anyone (viz. Gabbard) who believes that Iran is not on a path to a nuclear weapon is delusional. A country does not increase its number of centrifuges 10-fold, stockpile 900 lbs of enriched uranium, not use an ounce of that to fuel its one civilian nuclear reactor (that fuel comes from Russia), absent a commitment to develop a nuclear weapon. The consequence of the Israeli//U.S. attacks is to fuel that incentive. Moreover, the virtual elimination of Iran’s Middle Eastern proxies—Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Syria’s Assad regime, means it is now alone, with all of the implications of desperation that implies.
Iran’s Russian ally said on June 23 that several countries have come forward to announce that they could supply Iran with nuclear weapons. True or not, this is discomfiting to hear.
Tehran’s aging theocratic regime’s singular obsession is now survival. However, risking an all-out war with the U.S. would not be conducive to continuing in power. At a minimum, Iran is more likely to launch cyberattacks against U.S. computer systems and facilities such as the electric grid, power plants, and other utilities.
While both Jerusalem and Washington are experiencing fever dreams of regime change in Tehran, that is unrealistic for the moment. I don’t see crowds of demonstrators protesting the regime in the Iranian streets. Instead, huge crowds of nationalistic demonstrators are marching in support of the regime. Moreover, if there was a regime change, we cannot know if the newbies might not be worse than the Ayatollahs.
Our Middle Eastern military forays have produced mixed results, dating from the CIA-induced regime change in Iran in 1953, when Mohammed Mossadegh was removed from power and replaced by the Shah. A quarter century later, that did not work out so well for us, per the Islamic Revolution and the taking of American hostages. Desert Storm was a success. George W. Bush’s invasion of Iraq was a disaster. Afghanistan did not go well. So here we are again, unable to get the region out of our heads.
Back home, Trump did not brief Democratic lawmakers before launching his new war. While there is value in criticizing Trump’s precipitate act, Democratic kicking and screaming about this being a violation of the War Powers Act is a lot of stürm und drang signifying nothing. Presidents all too often have gone to war on their own initiative without asking for congressional blessing beforehand. The last time Congress declared war was in 1942 against Hungary, Bulgaria and Romania. Since then, the feeble best that Congress could do was to pass resolutions blessing presidential action. The 1964 Gulf of Tonkin Resolution, for example, served LBJ and Richard Nixon as justification for the Vietnam War, notwithstanding that it was based on a lie. Haranguing about Trump not going to Congress for a war declaration is an unserious Talmudic debate of little relevance.
Congressional Republicans as usual have acquitted themselves shamefully and cowardly — their silence is deafening.
More worthy of criticism, Trump did this on his own, not consulting our long-time allies, now I guess our enemies?
This is a huge gamble for Trump. America’s wars against Middle Eastern midgets in Iraq and Afghanistan took eight and 20 years, respectively to resolve. Iran is a military powerhouse compared to those two countries. I have no doubt that Trump and his gang of unqualified incompetents have not considered any of this before rushing into war.
Corrupdate.
“Too many non-working holidays in America. It is costing our Country $BILLIONS OF DOLLARS to keep all of these businesses closed,” he wrote. “It must change if we are going to, MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!”
–Donald Trump, Juneteenth, 2025
Oh, the irony!
This from the hands-down laziest president, if not human being, in recorded history. He waddles off to play golf on weekends at enormous expense to taxpayers after doing next to no work during the work week. He arrives at the Oval Office in late morning at the earliest, sits around for a few hours tuned into Fox News before resting from his labors. He rarely bothers to read the absolutely essential Presidential Daily Brief (PDB) which, during his first failed term (1) had to go from its usual length to just 1 page to accommodate his limited attention span, (2) was altered from text to primarily images so he would not have to strain his Australopithicine brain, and (3) this time around must contain his name liberally sprinkled throughout what remains of the detritus of the document.
Sheesh!
Dick Hermann
June 26, 2025
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