Rant 808: Final Debate Thoughts

The impact. I have tuned into every presidential and vice presidential debate since Richard Nixon and Jack Kennedy squared off in the first one in October, 1960. I strongly disagree with the pundit consensus that debates don’t move the needle much when it comes to voter preferences.

• 1960. The debate outcome underscored the enormous impact of the visual. Americans who listened on the radio believed Nixon had won. JFK’s relaxed, telegenic performance versus Nixon’s affect and that the Vice President was disadvantaged by both a recent illness and the absence of make-up demonstrated to the public that his young Senatorial opponent was at least on a par with the experienced Nixon and could credibly serve as Commander-in-Chief.

• 1976. Gerald Ford’s gaffe about Eastern Europe not being under Soviet rule, followed by his immediate doubling down on his calamitous faux pas, contributed significantly to his defeat.

• 1980. Ronald Reagan’s question during his debate with Jimmy Carter, “Are you better off today than you were four years ago?’ sealed the deal for him in 1980.

• 1988. Entering his debate with George H.W. Bush, Michael Dukakis enjoyed a 17-point lead in the polls. His passionless, scholarly answer to a question about what he would do if his wife was raped cost him dearly. It did not help that Bush’s height advantage was emphasized by the step stool provided for Dukakis.

• 2020. Trump’s boorish behavior during his first debate with Joe Biden turned off many voters and boosted the Democrat in the polls.

• 2024. Finally, Kamala Harris’s performance diminishing a bully was remarkable. The fact that Trump’s inability to perform under pressure gave her a modest boost in a very tight race is significant.

 
Don’t believe the pundits who proclaim that presidential debates have no impact. They do.
 
Post-debate reflections.

• The most remarkable takeaway was that the ABC moderators felt it necessary to check with Springfield, Ohio officials before going on air in order to determine if any pets had in fact been consumed by hungry Haitians. They suspected that Trump would not be able to resist raising this ridiculous nonsense.

• Just days after yet another tragic school massacre, the gun issue was barely addressed. All we learned was that Harris is a gun owner and supports the Second Amendment, the meaning of which the Supreme Court has perverted to such an extent that these judicial ideologues have blood on their hands.

• ABC did us a disservice by not asking the candidates: “What will you do if Iran gets the bomb?” It is hard to believe that Americans wouldn’t care if an ignoramus with no impulse control commands the nuclear release codes.

• The United States’ massive debt problem did not merit a single question. This is, alas, in keeping with both parties’ non-efforts over a half-century to suppress and distract from any mention of a sleeping giant of an issue that will come back to bite our progeny and eventually depress their standard of living.

• Campaigns and debates focus entirely too much attention on the presidential candidates and far too little on the people they will bring with them to the White House. It would be instructive to hear something about these people who will advise a president and implement his or her policies.

• Contrary to the excitement generated among members of the punditocracy  because 67 million people watched the debate, I was deeply disappointed. Seventy million Americans watched the first Nixon-Kennedy debate when the U.S. population was 179.3 million (est. 345 million today). In 2020, 155 million Americans voted. Were this turnout to remain the same this year (I think it will be higher), that means that 57 percent of likely voters tuned out. What a sad commentary about something so important to our future.

• After watching Trump melt down and self-destruct, it defies belief that he remains at 46 percent in the polls. It is shocking that his base clings to him despite his inability to control himself and project anything remotely resembling competence.

• Trump announced that he won’t debate Harris again. Nevertheless, he might if he keeps falling farther behind her in the polls as election day approaches. Desperation may make him change his mind despite the risk that she will do another rain dance on him.

 
Dick Hermann
September 22, 2024

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