If there was ever a moment that demonstrates the central role that the lessons of history teach, it was the 2024 election. History teaches us, unambiguously, that a Democrat had no chance of winning the 2024 presidential election. In every U.S. election in which the economy or inflation were THE overriding issues, the incumbent party lost even if it were not entirely to blame.
Here is the breakdown:
1840. The “Panic of 1837” was a widespread economic disaster that lasted for more than three years and caused a runaway inflation. The Democratic-Republican Party of Andrew Jackson and his successor, Martin Van Buren, was blamed for the catastrophe and voted out of office by the Whigs, led by William Henry Harrison and John Tyler.
1896. The 1893 recession and its lingering effects eased Grover Cleveland’s return to the White House he had been evicted from four years earlier (sound familiar?). President Benjamin Harrison was blamed for the economic downturn and was unable to overcome the public perception that it was entirely his fault (again, sound familiar?).
1920. During and immediately after the First World War, prices skyrocketed worldwide. From late 1916 to mid-1920, prices rose more than 80 percent in the U.S. The Democrats, who had governed for eight years, were trounced by the Republicans and Warren G. Harding in the 1920 election.
1932. Herbert Hoover, arguably the most qualified individual ever to run for president, was the principal victim of the Great Depression and the irrational exuberance of the 1920s that, in part, stoked it. Franklin D. Roosevelt cruised to victory.
1952. The Democrats were swept from power again this year after two years of high inflation.
1980. Ronald Reagan won the White House after several years of significant prices rises that squeezed Americans.
1992. This was the year James Carville spouted the phrase, “It’s the economy, stupid,” insightful words candidates live and die by. Inexplicably, Carville in 2024 seemed to forget that he said that. Perhaps he hoped for an exception.
2008. John McCain, a very worthy presidential candidate, had no chance once the Great Recession wrecked the lives of millions of Americans.
2024. Here we are again.
Nine elections where the economy was THE overriding issue. I suspect that any Republican would have won this year. In fact, s/he likely would have won by a larger margin than Donald Trump, countless warts and all, achieved.
I don’t see any way that Kamala Harris could have done much different from what was a very masterful campaign where she hoped to alter the historical reality. However, high prices for food, gasoline, mortgages, rent, car loans, credit card debt, education, etc. are incumbent killers. And despite efforts to depict herself as the “change” candidate, she was the sitting Vice President of an administration considered a failure by a majority of Americans. The “right-track, wrong-track” number (i.e., is the country headed in the right direction) was a dismal 28 percent in favor of the right track. More than 80 percent of wrong-track voters chose Trump.
The fact that President Biden was, per economic studies, only a 21 percent contributor to the inflation that vexed Americans during his term, and by no stretch the principal cause (the pandemic supply chain slowdowns triggered worldwide inflation) was irrelevant. Nor the fact that the U.S. economy did better during this “down” period than that of any other nation. Presidents get blamed simply because they were in office during inflationary times.
Thus, Democrats need to stop pointing fingers at one another for the defeat. Nancy Pelosi and the Obamas need to stop criticizing. Positing blame on Harris or Biden is not constructive.
Call this an unalterable rule of politics. It’s ALWAYS the economy, stupid.
Dick Hermann
November 15, 2024
Here is the breakdown:
1840. The “Panic of 1837” was a widespread economic disaster that lasted for more than three years and caused a runaway inflation. The Democratic-Republican Party of Andrew Jackson and his successor, Martin Van Buren, was blamed for the catastrophe and voted out of office by the Whigs, led by William Henry Harrison and John Tyler.
1896. The 1893 recession and its lingering effects eased Grover Cleveland’s return to the White House he had been evicted from four years earlier (sound familiar?). President Benjamin Harrison was blamed for the economic downturn and was unable to overcome the public perception that it was entirely his fault (again, sound familiar?).
1920. During and immediately after the First World War, prices skyrocketed worldwide. From late 1916 to mid-1920, prices rose more than 80 percent in the U.S. The Democrats, who had governed for eight years, were trounced by the Republicans and Warren G. Harding in the 1920 election.
1932. Herbert Hoover, arguably the most qualified individual ever to run for president, was the principal victim of the Great Depression and the irrational exuberance of the 1920s that, in part, stoked it. Franklin D. Roosevelt cruised to victory.
1952. The Democrats were swept from power again this year after two years of high inflation.
1980. Ronald Reagan won the White House after several years of significant prices rises that squeezed Americans.
1992. This was the year James Carville spouted the phrase, “It’s the economy, stupid,” insightful words candidates live and die by. Inexplicably, Carville in 2024 seemed to forget that he said that. Perhaps he hoped for an exception.
2008. John McCain, a very worthy presidential candidate, had no chance once the Great Recession wrecked the lives of millions of Americans.
2024. Here we are again.
Nine elections where the economy was THE overriding issue. I suspect that any Republican would have won this year. In fact, s/he likely would have won by a larger margin than Donald Trump, countless warts and all, achieved.
I don’t see any way that Kamala Harris could have done much different from what was a very masterful campaign where she hoped to alter the historical reality. However, high prices for food, gasoline, mortgages, rent, car loans, credit card debt, education, etc. are incumbent killers. And despite efforts to depict herself as the “change” candidate, she was the sitting Vice President of an administration considered a failure by a majority of Americans. The “right-track, wrong-track” number (i.e., is the country headed in the right direction) was a dismal 28 percent in favor of the right track. More than 80 percent of wrong-track voters chose Trump.
The fact that President Biden was, per economic studies, only a 21 percent contributor to the inflation that vexed Americans during his term, and by no stretch the principal cause (the pandemic supply chain slowdowns triggered worldwide inflation) was irrelevant. Nor the fact that the U.S. economy did better during this “down” period than that of any other nation. Presidents get blamed simply because they were in office during inflationary times.
Thus, Democrats need to stop pointing fingers at one another for the defeat. Nancy Pelosi and the Obamas need to stop criticizing. Positing blame on Harris or Biden is not constructive.
Call this an unalterable rule of politics. It’s ALWAYS the economy, stupid.
Dick Hermann
November 15, 2024
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