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Rant 818: Peering Over the Fiscal Cliff

12/3/2024

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​Historically, the Doge was the head of the Venetian government in the glory days when Venice dominated the Mediterranean world and controlled trade with the East. Venice became stinking rich and never had to concern itself with debt or deficits.

Today’s DOGE is something quite different. It stands for Trump’s extra-governmental agency, the “Department of Government Efficiency,” to be directed by the two-headed monster, Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy. The DOGE is tasked with cutting the government down to size by eliminating waste in addition to entire government departments and agencies.

Notwithstanding Musk’s bloviating about slashing government and the federal budget by at least a third, this will be no easy undertaking. The vast majority of government spending goes to Social Security, Medicare, other health programs, national defense and veterans benefits, all of which Trump has pledged not to mess with. That does not leave much for the dynamic duo’s shears. Musk is sure to recommend eliminating NASA, which would leave his own SpaceX company in command of the space program. The conflict of interest this represents is gargantuan, but distractions such as this never bother Trump.

Compounding Elon’s and Vivek’s dilemma is the major fiscal cliff coming up next year when the bulk of Trump’s 2017 tax cuts expire. Now with Republicans in total control of Washington, they are certain to extend them and thus add a couple of trillion more to the debt and deficit. Moreover, if you listened to what Republican candidates were saying during the campaign, they do not intend to stop with an extension. They are certain to go for additional tax cuts because that is what fuels Republican fever dreams. “The fact that they will be staring at a deficit of almost $2 trillion when they start down this path is of no interest to them (or to Democrats, I might add, who never let an opportunity for shiny new spending objects pass). Thus, don’t hold your breath waiting for Congress to come up with offsets to pay for any tax cuts.

Other than voting “No” and trying to look fiscally responsible via their public comments, Democrats have no good options. Their only hope, and it’s a bad one for the rest of us, is that Republicans rushing headlong to cut taxes as much as they can, will fuel inflation and doom themselves in future elections. In other words, that they will have learned nothing from the Biden example.

The only hope for Congress to stymie these efforts is members’ sensitivity to protecting their constituents. If there is a threat to take something away from voters, I suspect that their Senators and Representatives won’t like it.

Which brings us back to the Musk and Rama show. Judging by their public statements, they have no clue as to where federal money goes. It is likely to be a rude awakening when they find out. These guys are going to be in deeply over their heads. They may propose a few gimmicks that are likely to be rejected. Look for them to slink out of town quietly when they realize what they are up against.

Dick Hermann
December 2, 2024
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    Richard Hermann is the author of thirteen books, including Encounters: Ten Appointments with History and, most recently, Mother's Century: A Survivor, Her People and Her Times. Soon to be released is his upcoming Close Encounters with the Cold War, a personal reflection on growing up in the nuclear age. He is a former law professor and entrepreneur, and the founder and president of Federal Reports, Inc., a legal information and consulting firm that was sold in 2007. He has degrees from Yale University, the New School University, Cornell Law School and the U.S. Army Judge Advocate General’s School. He lives with his wife, Anne, and extraordinary dog, Barkley, in Arlington, Virginia and Canandaigua, New York.

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