The giant middle finger that President-Elect Donald Trump is wagging at the American public by virtue of his cabinet and other appointments is fraught with incredible danger. He—and they, if confirmed—will on day one be confronted with a world rife with perilous crises everywhere, both foreign and domestic. Any one of these could suddenly escalate into a major national security event. If these appointees lack the background, capacity and judgment to act and react wisely to these multifaceted and incredibly complex and inter-related situations, the United States and our allies are likely to be in serious trouble. For example:
This is only a selection of major issues that will confront the second Trump administration. Throw in public health, immigration, the regulation (or not) of artificial intelligence, crypto currencies’ impact on the global financial system, mass shootings, and growing income inequality and the table looks set for a disaster of historic proportions should many of Trump’s singularly unqualified and ill-equipped appointees take office. Picture a drunken managerial train wreck like Pete Hegseth in charge at the Department of Defense; whale and bear gourmet RFK, Jr. at Health & Human Services making polio, MMR (measles, mumps, rubella), DTaP (diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis), hepatitis B, HPV and varicella (chickenpox) vaccines unavailable, not to mention Covid-19, influenza, RSV and pneumonia jabs inaccessible or just harder to get. Or Tulsi Gabbard, an intel know-nothing, purveyor of Russian propaganda and secret fan of Syria’s Assad supervising the vital work of 18 intelligence agencies. The ensuing madness and negative consequences if any of these oddballs or their equally weird and whacko fellow nominees assume their intended roles in Trump II are incalculable. We could be severely weakened at the very time we cannot afford to be or look frail. And don’t think that our adversaries won’t notice. According to former Ambassador to Russia John Sullivan, they are already celebrating in the Kremlin and I should add, likely salivating in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.
The thin red line of defense against this predictable tragedy is the U.S. Senate. If its Republican majority has any sense of responsibility and any backbone left at all, it needs to reject the unqualified clowns, creeps and criminals (see. e.g., soon-to-be top trade advisor, Peter Navarro) Trump has middle-fingered for the top positions in government. If it allows these nominees to assume their appointments, those who approve them will be equally complicit in whatever catastrophes might follow.
For four years, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris told us that they were fighting for the “soul of America.” A recent survey found that 59 percent of Americans think the Trump transition is going along just fine. If Senate Republicans endorse this Dope-ler Effect red shift away from sanity and competence, we will witness the putrefaction of America’s soul.
Now the good news, such as it is:
I am not overly worried about a nudnik like Pete Hegseth as Secretary of Defense. This is a guy who was ousted from leading two veterans organizations with miniscule staffs because his management prowess was found wanting. The thought that he could manage an outfit with 3 million employees is laughable. Moreover, DoD has a long history of stymieing and surviving the worst instincts of its top civilian leadership, many of whom were highly capable. The careerists who run the Pentagon are likely already lining up some shiny objects to distract Hegseth, such as giving him a nice airplane and helicopter so he can travel around the world and inspect cool things like F-35 Strikefighters, aircraft carriers and the latest in guided missile cruisers and killer drones. The idea would be to keep him occupied with diversions and away from the serious stuff.
I am also not all that concerned with a bozo like Tulsi Gabbard as Director of National Intelligence. Even the highly competent professionals who have served in this recently created position have had little success in achieving its mission of coordinating the intel produced by 18 disparate agencies, each one of which has two decades of experience resisting this office. If they could confound James Clapper and Dan Coats, they won’t have much of a problem with a mediocrity like Gabbard. Moreover, our allies, from whom we gather around 60 percent of our actionable intel, will be reluctant to share their information with someone they view as a highly unreliable Russian asset with the judgment of a demented gnat.
The appointment that should concern us the most is RFK, Jr. as Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services. He would be in a position there to do immeasurable damage should he follow through on his long-time skepticism about childhood vaccines. The damage he could do if he takes them off the table or just bad-mouths them to the public will cost lives.
These cranks are just the tip of the iceberg, but a critical tip nonetheless. Many other proposed Trump appointees are poised to do big-time damage to agencies they might head and which they have advocated eliminating. Fortunately, the bureaucracy is quite adept at damage control.
Let us hope.
Dick Hermann
December 14, 2024
- Cold War 2.0—This is the big one. Maneuvering through the 40-year first Cold War required the total attention and creativity of America’s best strategic thinkers and national security megastars. This new trilateral version involving the U.S., Russia and China, is even more challenging. Among them, they have 12,500 nuclear warheads aimed at one another, overlaid by highly complicated trade relationships, alliances, global competitions, proxies and clashing interests. If Ukraine succumbs to the Russian invasion, can Taiwan be far behind? China’s Xi will be heavily influenced by what happens there. If U.S. oil production increases (as Trump wants) and oil prices consequently plummet, threatening Russia’s finances, will a desperate Vladimir Putin throw aside whatever constrains his aggressive instincts today? There are many more vexing questions around Cold War 2.0. The U.S. government will need all the brainpower and experience it can muster to answer them.
- North Korea—Kim’s love affair with Trump did nothing to temper his nuclear ambitions and threats hurled at South Korea. The latter’s current domestic chaos makes an invasion by the North ever more tempting. Trump and his cronies do not appear up to the task of defending our ally. Will Trump’s disinterest in honoring our defense commitment spur the South to develop its own nuclear weapons?
- ran—The Mullahs are clutched. Their Middle East proxy troublemakers—Syria, Hezbollah, Hamas and to a lesser extent the Yemeni Houthis—have been severely diminished. Their drone and missile attacks on Israel failed. Their own people despise them and wish them gone. Their entire geopolitical strategy is in shambles. All they have left is their nuclear program. International Atomic Energy analysts believe Iran could build a serviceable nuclear weapon in a month, thanks in large part to Trump’s reckless abandonment of the Iran nuclear agreement (JCPOA). Iran last week successfully tested an intercontinental ballistic missile. If Iran goes nuclear, will Israel attack? Will Saudi Arabia rush to develop its own nukes? What will that do to our ability to keep a lid on potential Middle East turmoil?
- Nuclear Proliferation—see above.
- Gaza—The war will likely continue because Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu cannot, for very personal reasons, allow it to end. If and when it does, he may lose his job and even end up in prison.
- Lebanon—Hezbollah is beaten for the moment, but like a bad penny, terrorist groups never seem to stay down for long (see the Syrian example, below). At some point, both Hezbollah and Hamas could be back.
- Syria—With the butcher Assad ousted by the sudden surge of a rebel al-Qaeda offshoot, Syria could become yet another destabilizing force in the Middle East with evil intent towards Israel and the United States. In addition to the conquering rebels, a number of other armed groups occupy different parts of the country, including remnants of ISIS. Syria could easily become a hornets’ nest for the U.S., which still has 900 troops stationed there. It could also represent an opportunity for us to gain some influence in the region if we assist whatever new government emerges. Trump’s “hands-off” policy is short-sighted, naïve and dangerous. This is an incredibly delicate situation and requires managers with expertise and experience.
- Germany and France—both of our principal continental allies and the European Union’s biggest economies have recently descended into political chaos. French President Macron’s government had to resign following a no-confidence vote in the National Assembly. Next week, Olaf Scholz’s German government faces a similar vote in the Bundestag.
- The UK—New Prime Minister Keir Starmer is seeing his approval rating plummet. Only five months into his term following a landslide election victory, a plurality of voters say that they would vote for the Conservatives if an election were held today. This is an unprecedented turnaround.
- Sudan—The U.S. needs to pay attention to this gruesome human tragedy. Continued neglect will only lead to more problems in the Horn of Africa.
- Climate—We may have already lost the battle to tamp down global warming and the devastating weather events it generates and that keep intensifying. Trump’s denial of this existential threat will only make things worse.
- Pandemic Preparedness—If Trump’s first term handling of Covid-19 is an indication, good luck. Moreover, this time around, the key figures tasked with this function have absurd ideological aversions to taking prophylactic measures. Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., an anti-vaxxer in charge, is the worst possible person to perform this critical function.
This is only a selection of major issues that will confront the second Trump administration. Throw in public health, immigration, the regulation (or not) of artificial intelligence, crypto currencies’ impact on the global financial system, mass shootings, and growing income inequality and the table looks set for a disaster of historic proportions should many of Trump’s singularly unqualified and ill-equipped appointees take office. Picture a drunken managerial train wreck like Pete Hegseth in charge at the Department of Defense; whale and bear gourmet RFK, Jr. at Health & Human Services making polio, MMR (measles, mumps, rubella), DTaP (diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis), hepatitis B, HPV and varicella (chickenpox) vaccines unavailable, not to mention Covid-19, influenza, RSV and pneumonia jabs inaccessible or just harder to get. Or Tulsi Gabbard, an intel know-nothing, purveyor of Russian propaganda and secret fan of Syria’s Assad supervising the vital work of 18 intelligence agencies. The ensuing madness and negative consequences if any of these oddballs or their equally weird and whacko fellow nominees assume their intended roles in Trump II are incalculable. We could be severely weakened at the very time we cannot afford to be or look frail. And don’t think that our adversaries won’t notice. According to former Ambassador to Russia John Sullivan, they are already celebrating in the Kremlin and I should add, likely salivating in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.
The thin red line of defense against this predictable tragedy is the U.S. Senate. If its Republican majority has any sense of responsibility and any backbone left at all, it needs to reject the unqualified clowns, creeps and criminals (see. e.g., soon-to-be top trade advisor, Peter Navarro) Trump has middle-fingered for the top positions in government. If it allows these nominees to assume their appointments, those who approve them will be equally complicit in whatever catastrophes might follow.
For four years, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris told us that they were fighting for the “soul of America.” A recent survey found that 59 percent of Americans think the Trump transition is going along just fine. If Senate Republicans endorse this Dope-ler Effect red shift away from sanity and competence, we will witness the putrefaction of America’s soul.
Now the good news, such as it is:
I am not overly worried about a nudnik like Pete Hegseth as Secretary of Defense. This is a guy who was ousted from leading two veterans organizations with miniscule staffs because his management prowess was found wanting. The thought that he could manage an outfit with 3 million employees is laughable. Moreover, DoD has a long history of stymieing and surviving the worst instincts of its top civilian leadership, many of whom were highly capable. The careerists who run the Pentagon are likely already lining up some shiny objects to distract Hegseth, such as giving him a nice airplane and helicopter so he can travel around the world and inspect cool things like F-35 Strikefighters, aircraft carriers and the latest in guided missile cruisers and killer drones. The idea would be to keep him occupied with diversions and away from the serious stuff.
I am also not all that concerned with a bozo like Tulsi Gabbard as Director of National Intelligence. Even the highly competent professionals who have served in this recently created position have had little success in achieving its mission of coordinating the intel produced by 18 disparate agencies, each one of which has two decades of experience resisting this office. If they could confound James Clapper and Dan Coats, they won’t have much of a problem with a mediocrity like Gabbard. Moreover, our allies, from whom we gather around 60 percent of our actionable intel, will be reluctant to share their information with someone they view as a highly unreliable Russian asset with the judgment of a demented gnat.
The appointment that should concern us the most is RFK, Jr. as Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services. He would be in a position there to do immeasurable damage should he follow through on his long-time skepticism about childhood vaccines. The damage he could do if he takes them off the table or just bad-mouths them to the public will cost lives.
These cranks are just the tip of the iceberg, but a critical tip nonetheless. Many other proposed Trump appointees are poised to do big-time damage to agencies they might head and which they have advocated eliminating. Fortunately, the bureaucracy is quite adept at damage control.
Let us hope.
Dick Hermann
December 14, 2024
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