Second presidential terms never go well. This may have all begun with Grover Cleveland’s second term which, like Trump’s, was interrupted by another President’s single term. Almost as soon as Cleveland returned to the White House in 1893, the U.S. economy collapsed into what amounted to a depression, labeled by historians as the “Panic of 1893.” Cleveland never recovered from that and his second term was uneventful, bereft of accomplishments.
Since then, every single two-term President has suffered the same bad fortune. Woodrow Wilson’s second term was marked by U.S. entry into World War I, his Senate League of Nations defeat, high inflation and a stroke that rendered him unable to govern. Even an overall hugely successful President like Franklin D. Roosevelt had a disastrous second term (the “court-packing” debacle being paramount). Dwight Eisenhower (the U-2 embarrassment), Richard Nixon (the Watergate cover-up), Ronald Reagan (Iran Contra, perhaps early onset Alzheimers), Bill Clinton (impeachment), George W. Bush (Iraq WMD, Katrina, the Great Recession), and Barack Obama (gun legislation failure, Edward Snowden, ACA exchange roll-out) followed suit. The smart money is on Donald Trump to experience the same fate.
Trump has over-promised the world to voters. His hyperbole will be the measuring stick of his success or failure. What follows is a short list of select promises that will be very difficult for Trump to fulfill:
Inflation is already down close to the pre-pandemic two percent level. Biden has left Trump a thriving economy. Lowering prices would be a Herculean task for even a competent President. Under any circumstances, presidents have little influence on prices.
Trump wants to extend his 2017 tax cuts which are scheduled to expire soon. That bill had little in it for workers; most of its benefits going to billionaires and the one percent. Ending taxes on Social Security income, which he has specifically promised, would put the survival of the program, already experiencing a $23.2 trillion cash shortfall, into crisis territory.
Virtually every economist predicts that Trump’s tariffs will amount to a heavy tax on American consumers, offsetting by far any tax cuts they might receive. Moreover, they are likely to accelerate inflation. It will also prompt our trading partners to retaliate, which will cause exports to plummet and American jobs to disappear. Here’s how many Chinese companies built U.S. factories after Trump imposed his original 25 percent tariffs: NONE. Here’s how many U.S. manufacturing jobs resulted from the tariffs; MINUS 250,000.
Easier said than done. Should negotiations come to pass, they are likely to last a very long time and not necessarily succeed. The “X” factor is whether U.S. support for Ukraine will continue once Trump assumes office. The worst case is that he will stop arming Ukraine and effectively gift-wrap the country to Putin.
He claims that he will deport at least 11 million undocumented immigrants, which would, among other negative effects, cause numerous industries like construction and meatpacking to suffer along with various “low-end” jobs that American citizens won’t do. Speaking of construction, at this writing the Los Angeles area has lost more than 12,000 structures. It will be impossible to rebuild them without any workers. We will also lose the entrepreneurial energy and work ethic that these immigrants bring to this country.
The Fourteenth Amendment begins: “All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States.” Repeal advocates argue that the children of undocumented aliens are not covered by this language because they are not subject to U.S. jurisdiction, but of course they are. Not only the text of this Amendment, but also the long history of judicial, executive branch and congressional interpretation underscores this. Thus, terminating birthright citizenship requires a constitutional amendment. However, given that the Supreme Court has become a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Trump Republican Party, one never knows.
Trump really has only two years to implement his latest round of extreme policies. There is no assurance that members of Congress worried about re-election will go along with every bit of the insanity. The key question is: will the MAGA faithful countenance his failures to keep his promises? Or will they forgive him his trespasses?
I don’t have much faith in Democrats’ ability to communicate Trump’s fiascos to voters given the Biden administration’s inability to get its economic message across to the public and the Harris campaign’s similar problems during the 2024 elections.
Dick Hermann
January 17, 2025
Since then, every single two-term President has suffered the same bad fortune. Woodrow Wilson’s second term was marked by U.S. entry into World War I, his Senate League of Nations defeat, high inflation and a stroke that rendered him unable to govern. Even an overall hugely successful President like Franklin D. Roosevelt had a disastrous second term (the “court-packing” debacle being paramount). Dwight Eisenhower (the U-2 embarrassment), Richard Nixon (the Watergate cover-up), Ronald Reagan (Iran Contra, perhaps early onset Alzheimers), Bill Clinton (impeachment), George W. Bush (Iraq WMD, Katrina, the Great Recession), and Barack Obama (gun legislation failure, Edward Snowden, ACA exchange roll-out) followed suit. The smart money is on Donald Trump to experience the same fate.
Trump has over-promised the world to voters. His hyperbole will be the measuring stick of his success or failure. What follows is a short list of select promises that will be very difficult for Trump to fulfill:
- “We will end inflation and make America affordable again.”
Inflation is already down close to the pre-pandemic two percent level. Biden has left Trump a thriving economy. Lowering prices would be a Herculean task for even a competent President. Under any circumstances, presidents have little influence on prices.
- “We will pass massive tax cuts for workers.”
Trump wants to extend his 2017 tax cuts which are scheduled to expire soon. That bill had little in it for workers; most of its benefits going to billionaires and the one percent. Ending taxes on Social Security income, which he has specifically promised, would put the survival of the program, already experiencing a $23.2 trillion cash shortfall, into crisis territory.
- “We’re going to have 10 to 20% tariffs on foreign countries that have been ripping us off for years… I do like the 10% [tariff] for everybody…The higher the tariff, the more likely it is that the company will come into the United States, and build a factory in the United States so it doesn’t have to pay the tariff.”
Virtually every economist predicts that Trump’s tariffs will amount to a heavy tax on American consumers, offsetting by far any tax cuts they might receive. Moreover, they are likely to accelerate inflation. It will also prompt our trading partners to retaliate, which will cause exports to plummet and American jobs to disappear. Here’s how many Chinese companies built U.S. factories after Trump imposed his original 25 percent tariffs: NONE. Here’s how many U.S. manufacturing jobs resulted from the tariffs; MINUS 250,000.
- “I will have the horrible war between Russia and Ukraine settled … quickly.” He went on to promise that he would end the war in 24 hours.
Easier said than done. Should negotiations come to pass, they are likely to last a very long time and not necessarily succeed. The “X” factor is whether U.S. support for Ukraine will continue once Trump assumes office. The worst case is that he will stop arming Ukraine and effectively gift-wrap the country to Putin.
- On Day 1, “we will begin the largest deportation operation in American history.”
He claims that he will deport at least 11 million undocumented immigrants, which would, among other negative effects, cause numerous industries like construction and meatpacking to suffer along with various “low-end” jobs that American citizens won’t do. Speaking of construction, at this writing the Los Angeles area has lost more than 12,000 structures. It will be impossible to rebuild them without any workers. We will also lose the entrepreneurial energy and work ethic that these immigrants bring to this country.
- “I will end birthright citizenship.”
The Fourteenth Amendment begins: “All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States.” Repeal advocates argue that the children of undocumented aliens are not covered by this language because they are not subject to U.S. jurisdiction, but of course they are. Not only the text of this Amendment, but also the long history of judicial, executive branch and congressional interpretation underscores this. Thus, terminating birthright citizenship requires a constitutional amendment. However, given that the Supreme Court has become a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Trump Republican Party, one never knows.
Trump really has only two years to implement his latest round of extreme policies. There is no assurance that members of Congress worried about re-election will go along with every bit of the insanity. The key question is: will the MAGA faithful countenance his failures to keep his promises? Or will they forgive him his trespasses?
I don’t have much faith in Democrats’ ability to communicate Trump’s fiascos to voters given the Biden administration’s inability to get its economic message across to the public and the Harris campaign’s similar problems during the 2024 elections.
Dick Hermann
January 17, 2025
RSS Feed