Revolutions in military thinking are extremely rare. Not that long ago, West Point cadets were still studying the particulars of Hannibal’s strategy at the battles of Lake Trasimene and Cannae almost 2,500 years ago.
Today we are witnessing a major rethinking of military strategy and tactics without being aware of it.
Recently, Ukraine staged a hugely successful drone attack deep into Russia. Ukrainian drones destroyed 40 advanced Russian aircraft. Aside from the fact that this surprise attack succeeded despite Russian defenses, the most amazing thing about it is the asymmetry of its costs. Each Ukrainian drone cost a few hundred dollars. In contrast, each destroyed Russian airplane cost somewhere north of $40 million. This is a return on investment that even Nvidia would envy.
Drones are clearly now not only the future of warfare, but also the present. The future is now. Massively expensive “legacy” weapons, such as America’s F-35 Strikefighter, the current fifth generation of which costs $109 million per plane (total program cost: $2 trillion) may already be obsolete just a few years after they launched.
It’s not just jet fighters and bombers that drones are rendering obsolete. The U.S. Abrams tank is the most technologically advanced and sophisticated battle tank in the world. We have given a bunch of them to Ukraine. However, virtually every one of them has been destroyed by cheap Russian drones.
The “drone revolution” is not limited to air and land warfare. Ukrainian drones have also decimated much of Russia’s Black Sea fleet. Even highly advanced Russian warships, with all of their powerful anti-aircraft defenses, appear defenseless against dirt-cheap drones. America’s immense aircraft carrier fleet take note. We currently have 11 carriers deployed, the most powerful naval ships in the world. Each one of these behemoths cost billions of dollars. They may, however, be helpless against a handful of inexpensive drones. Perhaps the next one commissioned should be named the “U.S.S. Sitting Duck.”
China today produces around 100 times more drones than the U.S. and Europe combined. Should China move on Taiwan, America’s multi-trillion dollar fleets may be of little value if we come to Taiwan’s defense.
The drone revolution, as evidenced by the Russo-Ukraine War, should be a loud wake-up call to the Pentagon. But so far, all we see is America mired in planning to fight the last war. We continue to pour trillions into obsolete weapons systems that will do us little good against an enemy’s drones. That has to change. Our defense planning needs a mammoth overhaul.
There are also immense collateral benefits to changes in our defense posture and the level of expenditures needed to address this new asymmetry. The biggest is that our almost trillion-dollar annual defense budget could be dramatically reduced if reoriented to drone warfare and drone defense. This would mark a major assault on our out-of-control national debt at a time when such is desperately needed. Also, it would make a real dent in the debt, unlike the fraud that Trump and his supine Republican Congress are currently engaged in, which will make the debt problem even worse.
However, the obstacles to instituting a sea-change in U.S. defense thinking are huge. Thousands of powerful and influential interest groups have an existential stake in maintaining the status quo. Like the oil and gas industry fighting tooth and nail to survive against any move to renewable energy, the military-industrial complex will do whatever it takes to keep its gravy train flowing, regardless of the adverse impact on U.S. national security.
This is a very serious matter that needs addressing immediately. Having the right people in charge at the top levels of the Pentagon is essential to seeing, understanding and taking the requisite actions to overhaul our national defense. Tragically, woefully inept Pete Hegseth and his cronies are not them.
Corrupdate. Trump’s corruption is not limited to financial grifting. It includes depravities far afield from mere greed. His rampant hypocrisy and double standard is one such example. He federalizes and deploys the California National Guard and the U.S. Marines to Los Angeles to quell protests against ICE Gestapo-like tactics despite the fact that local law enforcement had the situation under control and did not request federal assistance. This is the very same Trump who refused to federalize and deploy the Guard on January 6, 2021 when thousands of violent, traitorous insurrectionists stormed the U.S. Capitol, beat up cops and attempted to hang his Vice President. His arguments for sending the military into LA can be summed up in one word: bullshit.
There are three reasons why Trump is doing this: (1) He always wants to look like a tough guy, a reflection of his deep insecurities (see, e.g., the North Korea-style military parade on his birthday); (2) immigration is the issue on which he has pinned his entire political journey and where his across-the board dismal poll numbers, albeit feeble, are the best. (3) He needs distractions from his administration’s cruelty, chaos and incompetence: stupid, unnecessary tariffs that are ruining the economy; his disastrous Big Ugly Bill that would transfer billions of dollars from the middle class and poor to billionaires, deny health insurance to millions, and allow his legal minions to defy court orders without any consequences, among other atrocities; unceasing grifting; coddling of our enemies; and so much more, all of which are not playing well with the public.
Dick Hermann
June 14, 2025
Today we are witnessing a major rethinking of military strategy and tactics without being aware of it.
Recently, Ukraine staged a hugely successful drone attack deep into Russia. Ukrainian drones destroyed 40 advanced Russian aircraft. Aside from the fact that this surprise attack succeeded despite Russian defenses, the most amazing thing about it is the asymmetry of its costs. Each Ukrainian drone cost a few hundred dollars. In contrast, each destroyed Russian airplane cost somewhere north of $40 million. This is a return on investment that even Nvidia would envy.
Drones are clearly now not only the future of warfare, but also the present. The future is now. Massively expensive “legacy” weapons, such as America’s F-35 Strikefighter, the current fifth generation of which costs $109 million per plane (total program cost: $2 trillion) may already be obsolete just a few years after they launched.
It’s not just jet fighters and bombers that drones are rendering obsolete. The U.S. Abrams tank is the most technologically advanced and sophisticated battle tank in the world. We have given a bunch of them to Ukraine. However, virtually every one of them has been destroyed by cheap Russian drones.
The “drone revolution” is not limited to air and land warfare. Ukrainian drones have also decimated much of Russia’s Black Sea fleet. Even highly advanced Russian warships, with all of their powerful anti-aircraft defenses, appear defenseless against dirt-cheap drones. America’s immense aircraft carrier fleet take note. We currently have 11 carriers deployed, the most powerful naval ships in the world. Each one of these behemoths cost billions of dollars. They may, however, be helpless against a handful of inexpensive drones. Perhaps the next one commissioned should be named the “U.S.S. Sitting Duck.”
China today produces around 100 times more drones than the U.S. and Europe combined. Should China move on Taiwan, America’s multi-trillion dollar fleets may be of little value if we come to Taiwan’s defense.
The drone revolution, as evidenced by the Russo-Ukraine War, should be a loud wake-up call to the Pentagon. But so far, all we see is America mired in planning to fight the last war. We continue to pour trillions into obsolete weapons systems that will do us little good against an enemy’s drones. That has to change. Our defense planning needs a mammoth overhaul.
There are also immense collateral benefits to changes in our defense posture and the level of expenditures needed to address this new asymmetry. The biggest is that our almost trillion-dollar annual defense budget could be dramatically reduced if reoriented to drone warfare and drone defense. This would mark a major assault on our out-of-control national debt at a time when such is desperately needed. Also, it would make a real dent in the debt, unlike the fraud that Trump and his supine Republican Congress are currently engaged in, which will make the debt problem even worse.
However, the obstacles to instituting a sea-change in U.S. defense thinking are huge. Thousands of powerful and influential interest groups have an existential stake in maintaining the status quo. Like the oil and gas industry fighting tooth and nail to survive against any move to renewable energy, the military-industrial complex will do whatever it takes to keep its gravy train flowing, regardless of the adverse impact on U.S. national security.
This is a very serious matter that needs addressing immediately. Having the right people in charge at the top levels of the Pentagon is essential to seeing, understanding and taking the requisite actions to overhaul our national defense. Tragically, woefully inept Pete Hegseth and his cronies are not them.
Corrupdate. Trump’s corruption is not limited to financial grifting. It includes depravities far afield from mere greed. His rampant hypocrisy and double standard is one such example. He federalizes and deploys the California National Guard and the U.S. Marines to Los Angeles to quell protests against ICE Gestapo-like tactics despite the fact that local law enforcement had the situation under control and did not request federal assistance. This is the very same Trump who refused to federalize and deploy the Guard on January 6, 2021 when thousands of violent, traitorous insurrectionists stormed the U.S. Capitol, beat up cops and attempted to hang his Vice President. His arguments for sending the military into LA can be summed up in one word: bullshit.
There are three reasons why Trump is doing this: (1) He always wants to look like a tough guy, a reflection of his deep insecurities (see, e.g., the North Korea-style military parade on his birthday); (2) immigration is the issue on which he has pinned his entire political journey and where his across-the board dismal poll numbers, albeit feeble, are the best. (3) He needs distractions from his administration’s cruelty, chaos and incompetence: stupid, unnecessary tariffs that are ruining the economy; his disastrous Big Ugly Bill that would transfer billions of dollars from the middle class and poor to billionaires, deny health insurance to millions, and allow his legal minions to defy court orders without any consequences, among other atrocities; unceasing grifting; coddling of our enemies; and so much more, all of which are not playing well with the public.
Dick Hermann
June 14, 2025
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