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Rant 716: You Brexit, Now You Own It

11/27/2022

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​Brexit, the UK’s irrational departure from the European Union, has been an unmitigated disaster for the former empire over which, for several hundred years, the sun never set. These are dark days indeed for Britain, and they are likely to get even darker before any light appears at the Dover end of the Chunnel.
 
Former Prime Minister David Cameron’s gamble of a referendum to determine if Britain should “stay” or “leave” the EU was beyond reckless. Now, six years after deciding by a slim margin to divorce from Europe, Britain has plummeted into Third World territory. Following the hapless Cameron, the country has been afflicted with three mediocre Prime Ministers–Theresa May, Boris Johnson, and here-today, gone-tomorrow Liz Truss–proof positive that the Peter Principle is alive and well in un-merry old England. It is stunning to think that these three minnows occupied the same office that previously hosted giants like William Pitt the Younger, Castlereagh, Disraeli, Gladstone, Salisbury, Lloyd George and Churchill. The jury is still out on Truss’s replacement, Rishi Sunak. The signs, however, are not good. Sunak continues to insist that Brexit was a good idea.
 
Britain’s standard of living is declining and accelerating downward at a dizzying rate. The nation is in recession and headed for depression. Its 11 percent inflation is the highest among G-7 countries. Incomes are plummeting while energy costs skyrocket. There are no good economic policy alternatives available to a government that less than a third of Britons still support.
 
Trade has been disrupted because the price of an open border between Northern Ireland (part of the UK) and the Irish Republic (a member of the European Union) is border checks when goods travel between Northern Ireland and Great Britain. Trade between the UK and EU is down by 20 percent. The pound sterling is not so sterling anymore. The weak pound has increased the costs of imports, leaving UK households poorer. Wage growth has stagnated while the cost of everything rises. Britain’s labor supply has crashed due to a massive outflow of EU workers. Investment is down by 14 percent. British companies are voting with their feet, leaving for the continent. All in all, Brexit has been a catastrophe for Britain. Prospects moving forward are dismal.
 
Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s First Minister, believes that the time has arrived to move forward with another referendum on Scottish independence. Why would Scotland want to continue to be dragged down by affiliation with the governmental chaos and disastrous economic policies foisted upon the nation by Westminster? The courts have stalled an independence referendum for now, but if Scotland succeeds in saying goodbye, can Northern Ireland and Wales be far behind? London may soon find itself governing a tiny, no longer relevant rump state like Austria after World War I.
 
U.S. Republicans should heed what the markets told Truss after she proposed tax cuts for wealthy Britons and large corporations without paying for them other than by printing money and fueling even more of the double-digit inflation that torments the country today. It was stunning to listen to her argument, identical to the Republicans’ failed playbook, that the benefits would trickle down to the masses and that tax revenues would subsequently rise. That this specious thesis discredited multiple times in the U.S. over the past 40 years could seamlessly cross the pond and find favor in the mother country is proof beyond any doubt that Truss and her now-deposed cronies were in way over their heads. We on this side of the Atlantic can only wonder why the markets give a pass to this absurd Republican notion every time the GOP goes down this potholed path. Maybe now that they slapped down Truss, the markets will react similarly the next time the GOP promotes it.
 
UK polls reveal that almost two-thirds of Britons have buyer’s remorse regarding Brexit. It may be too late for the only solution to bedraggled Britain’s self-induced dive into the rabbit hole of economic penury: going hat-in-hand to Brussels and begging to be let back into the EU. They can only hope the continentals don’t respond with: you can’t have your crow and eat it too.
 
Dick Hermann
November 27, 2022

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Rant 715: Not So Fast...Democracy Isn't Saved Yet

11/18/2022

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Before the celebrations about democracy triumphing become too raucous and take root as the lesson coming out of the midterms, some more sober reflection is in order. We should defer sighing in relief for four reasons:

  1. Although it appears that every election denier who ran for statewide office in a swing state lost, many came dangerously close to winning. Certainly, it is terrific that so many election deniers who, if elected, could have thwarted the will of the voters in future elections, went down to defeat, some by huge margins. Also great that all the candidates for Secretary of State in swing states, who as a group had publicly pledged to make certain that Donald Trump or some other Trumpy candidate would prevail in 2024 despite the will of the voters, lost their bids to become fifth columnists. And that the Pennsylvania governor’s race went to Democrat Josh Shapiro by double digits, critical because the governor appoints the Secretary of State. Had radical right extremist Doug Mastriano won, a critical swing state would be in the clutches of election deniers come 2024. Even so, a great many voters preferred these election deniers over their democracy defender rivals. In those races, democracy only won by a hair.  Close to 50 percent of swing state voters aren’t at all interested in preserving our democracy.
  2. More than 100 election deniers won congressional, statewide and state legislative races, primarily in red states. Around 25 percent of House Republicans are members of the extreme right House Freedom Caucus. They are the most ardent Trump supporters/election deniers in Congress. Two newly-elected members of Congress were at the Capitol on January 6, 2021. All could be in position to threaten democracy come 2024.
  3. Donald Trump hasn’t gone away. In fact, he is once again running for President. There is little evidence yet that the MAGA movement will abandon its cult leader anytime soon. Despite being under a very dark legal cloud, he will use the next two years to hammer away at both his potential GOP rivals and Joe Biden, employing the fact-free universe in which he resides to rile up the MAGAverse and whack at the underpinnings of democracy.
  4. Finally, a threat that has thus far been under the radar. Saudi Arabia’s Sovereign Wealth Fund, which is controlled by Saudi dictator Muhammed Bin Salman (MBS), owns 17 percent of Twitter, making it the second largest shareholder after Elon Musk. Assuming Twitter survives Musk’s mayhem, this is perhaps the Saudis’ most dangerous infiltration of American business to date. Given Musk’s authoritarian propensities, Saudi intentions to possibly exploit Twitter to influence U.S. public opinion and lawmakers in directions aligned with its repressive policies and interfere in U.S. elections to the detriment of democracy mesh very well with Musk’s own despotic desires for his new toy. Together with Musk, the social media giant they jointly control is in position to suppress speech Saudi Arabia doesn’t like and to sway the American electorate in its direction.
 
There is, however, a vaccine available that can defeat the Saudi virus: The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), a small obscure Treasury Department agency, has the authority to review and bar the Saudi investment for reasons of national security. Those reasons clearly apply in this case. So far, however, CFIUS has not acted. This is likely the result of President Biden’s about-face regarding Saudi Arabia. Despite his campaign pledge to make the kingdom the pariah that it is, he went begging the desert monarchy in a futile attempt to induce it to produce more oil and thus lower gas prices. Worse, he just rewarded MBS with immunity from civil liability for the murder of Jamal Khashoggi. Even the Saudi-servile Trump administration didn’t do that.
 
No one should assume that the enemies of democracy have been routed. While they may be tending their wounds right now, it is highly likely that they will be back and just as dangerous as ever.
 
Dick Hermann
November 18, 2022

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Rant 714: Not-So-Obvious Midterm Takeaways

11/11/2022

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Dissecting the red wave that wasn’t. Despite the most favorable midterm scenario in 50 years—President Biden’s dismal approval rating; inflation at a 40-year high; a bogus crime issue that nevertheless resonated and (inexplicably) put Democrats on the defensive; record border crossings; huge majorities saying the country is on the wrong track; and midterm history squarely on their side—Republicans essentially got hammered. At this writing, it appears they might have a paper-thin House majority and remain the Senate minority.

House Republicans will make complete asses of themselves in the next two years. This gaggle of tremulous geese still in thrall to the Big Liar despite the bursting of his balloon will do nothing to address the problems we face—inflation, guns, climate change, immigration. The notion of governing responsibly is completely alien to the so-called Freedom Caucus of hard-right zealots. Instead, they will focus their energies on performative pointlessness and disruption: (1) pursuing “revenge” investigations in a futile, albeit comic, attempt to make Democrats pay for their legitimate and revealing probe of Trump’s January 6 insurrection; (2) obstructing everything Biden proposes to address the country’s problems.  (3) and perhaps even attempting to impeach Biden for fictitious wrongs. Prediction: Republican antics will produce nothing but public contempt for them, not a good look as the 2024 election approaches.

Kevin McCarthy’s lifelong quest to become Speaker may hit a snag. The 100+ House members of the Freedom Caucus see McCarthy for what he really is: the emptiest suit on the Hill. However, if they don’t support him, they may have a tough time anointing anyone for a job that will require every single Republican vote.

Tim Ryan’s concession speech. The best concession speech (https://www.c-span.org/video/?523854-1/tim-ryan-concedes-ohio-senate-race) since Al Gore’s in 2000, and a lesson in how a mature, decent person handles losing an election.

Lauren Boebert’s very close call. At this writing, the Wicked Witch of the Western Slope is barely ahead of her Democratic opponent. Kudos to the residents of the other side of the Continental Divide for almost rejecting one of the most obnoxious, vile and useless House members.

Trump got stomped, but is not done yet. It’s now three national elections in a row where voters resoundingly rejected Trump’s evil clown show. Despite his flailing attempts to put a positive spin on his latest electoral failure, word has it that he spent the days after the debacle raging around Mar-a-Lago screaming, yelling  and blaming everyone (including Melania) but himself for the trouncing of Mehmet Oz and so many other of his hand-picked candidates. His frustration was exacerbated by Gov. Ron DeSantis’ landslide victory in Florida, an ominous portent of what may await Agent Orange in 2024. Nevertheless, the MAGA base, which views him as divinely anointed, remains the strongest voting bloc in the GOP. It will take much more to convince them that the emperor has no clothes (pardon that image!).

Election liars live to fight another day. Despite the losses suffered by some of the most prominent election liars, at least half of them won seats in Congress and at the state level. However, the Trump-manufactured lies about the “stolen” 2020 election are getting shopworn and are likely not a winning formula moving forward. To survive, the election dissemblers might have to come up with some substantive policy positions on which to campaign in the future. That’s a steep slope for a crew that wouldn’t recognize a policy if it bit them in the behind.

Democrats began a comeback in state legislatures. It took 14 years for Democrats to begin to pay attention once again to state legislative races. This go-round, they took total control in three states, the first steps in the long, hard climb to reverse Barack Obama’s benign neglect of down-ballot races that enabled Republicans to gain more than 1,000 state legislative seats during his presidency.

“Content of character” took a beating. Georgian Martin Luther King, Jr’s hope that the content of a man’s character should be determinative got trashed in Georgia by the people who voted for Herschel Walker, hands down the second most loathsome candidate ever to run for office.

Samuel Alito might have to go into Witness Protection. Both Republican anti-abortion absolutists and the polls greatly underestimated the anger of abortion rights voters fired up by the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade. Anti-abortion measures lost everywhere they were on the ballot. The hard-right majority on the Supreme Court might want to rethink its fidelity to the Republican National Committee.

Not-so-fast on the “democracy is saved” shtick. Even if Trump fades away or is frog-marched to prison, there is still a long way to go to excise the authoritarian temptation out of American politics. Beware of Trump-with-a-brain if Florida Governor DeSantis wins the Republican nomination in 2024. Trumpism will be with us for some time.

What goes around comes around. When Richard Nixon launched his political career riding the coattails of Joe McCarthy’s anti-Communist blather, my father used to say that someday he would be called to account for the lives he destroyed (see, e.g., the “Hollywood Ten”). It took 25 years, but then Watergate happened and Nixon got his well-deserved comeuppance. The 2022 midterms are the first down payment on Republican accountability for seven years of fealty to the devastation wrought by Trump.

Our European allies are dancing in the streets. The unreserved joy reflected in the UK and EU media about the U.S. election outcome and what it says about the survival of sanity speaks volumes. They breathed a collective sigh of relief that the crazies got slapped with at least a partial setback.

Zelensky won, Putin lost.  Perhaps the biggest loser is not Trump, but rather Vladimir Putin, whose hopes for a GOP red wave that would clamp down on U.S. aid to Ukraine were dashed.

Dick Hermann
November 11, 2022

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Rant 713: High Time for the Cure

11/4/2022

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The attack on Paul Pelosi by a murderous, hard right fanatic is the direct result of almost seven years of Donald Trump’s advocating violence, encouraging crazy conspiracy theories, and making ad hominem attacks on House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, whom he could not abide because she stood up to him and would not surrender to his lies and blowups.
 
The attempted murder of a political opponent’s family member moves us into extremely dangerous territory. The First Amendment does not enable Trump or his villainous acolytes to inflame their followers to commit violent acts. This behavior is nowhere close to protected speech.
 
The time is past for allowing Trump to get away with incendiary rhetoric. His encouraging of a march on the Capitol on January 6, 2021 resulted in multiple deaths and many serious injuries, mostly inflicted on the law enforcement officers that he claims to love so much. What happened then has not deterred him from continuing to encourage violence against his enemies.
 
The longer Trump is free to spout rabble-rousing rhetoric, the more his appalling behavior metastasizes throughout the MAGA-sphere and prompts Trump-fearing politicians to mouth similar over-the-top calls for violence against their opponents. The disgusting statements right-wing fever swamp residents like Kari Lake and Glenn Youngkin made regarding the Pelosi assault are ominous indicators that Trump’s malevolent rhetoric has spread. These spineless sycophants say terrible things only to curry favor with the Mar-a- Lago monster and his followers.
 
It is long past time to bring the full force of the law down upon Trump’s head and put him out of commission. There is plenty of evidence available to bring this about:

  • The Mueller Report contemplated indicting Trump for obstruction of justice (ten incidents of obstruction are detailed in Vol. 2 of the Report), saying how important it was to preserve and document the evidence. The only reason for wording it this way was because, although the Justice Department’s Office of Legal Counsel said that a sitting president cannot be indicted; an ex-president certainly can be.
  • The multiple criminal investigations of the horrible things this man has done have gone on long enough. The investigators have accumulated a virtual Everest of evidence of his criminality, whether it be his treasonous attempt to steal an election, his illegal effort to subvert the free and fair vote in Georgia and elsewhere, or his theft of highly classified documents when he grudgingly left office and his subsequent refusal to obey the law and return them to federal custody.
 
If it were true that “no man is above the law,” then Trump would be wallowing in a prison cell and denied bail just like what would have happened to any other person accused of his major crimes.
 
Regardless of how we get there, it is imperative that Trump’s festering evil be stamped out now. The longer it is allowed to spread, the more possibly irreparable damage it will do to the country. The glacial pace of bringing the chief perpetrator of our ills to justice is doing this country in. The law provides the only vaccine available to eradicate this sickness. Invoke it now.
 
Dick Hermann
November 4, 2022

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    Author

    Richard Hermann is the author of thirteen books, including Encounters: Ten Appointments with History and, most recently, Mother's Century: A Survivor, Her People and Her Times. Soon to be released is his upcoming Close Encounters with the Cold War, a personal reflection on growing up in the nuclear age. He is a former law professor and entrepreneur, and the founder and president of Federal Reports, Inc., a legal information and consulting firm that was sold in 2007. He has degrees from Yale University, the New School University, Cornell Law School and the U.S. Army Judge Advocate General’s School. He lives with his wife, Anne, and extraordinary dog, Barkley, in Arlington, Virginia and Canandaigua, New York.

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