Donald Trump is frantically trying to steal the presidential election through the most massive voter prevention effort since the heyday of Jim Crow, as well as voter intimidation, lies about voter fraud and by claiming that if he does not win, then the election was rigged. Setting these unprecedented calumnies and barbarities aside for the moment, the mainstream media horror that we won’t know on election night who won and thus the ensuing days and weeks will descend into chaos violence is misplaced. We will have a dependable way to know on November 3d if Joe Biden is highly likely to win the presidency. That’s because Florida, the core battleground state and the poster child for election administration incompetence (see 2000), will report its complete results that evening. Should Biden prevail in Florida, it’s most likely curtains for Trump. The worst president in American history by at least a parsec (think a country mile x 19 trillion) will be toast. Without Florida, Trump has no path to 270 votes in the Electoral College. Zero. Nada. Zilch.
However, should Trump win Florida, all bets as to who wins the presidency are off. It will still be an uphill climb for him, but not impossible. He would have to run the table in the rest of the battleground states like he did in 2016 while also holding on to states he won four years ago. It is noteworthy that states like Ohio and Georgia that, by rights, should be firmly in his sagging pockets, are suddenly up for grabs. In fact, Ohio, without which no Republican has ever been elected president, is giving Republicans heartburn now because their internal polls show a Biden lead.
Three battleground states other than Florida may also report their results on November 3d: Arizona, North Carolina and Ohio. Thus, by midnight or in the wee hours of November 4th, we should have a pretty good sense of where things stand: either a Biden victory or an uncertain outcome. Should Biden sweep all four of these states, look for a landslide that will blow Trump out of the water.
Twenty years after Florida’s election snafu—butterfly ballots, hanging chads, recount chaos, conflicting court decisions, etc., the Sunshine State has a rare opportunity to redeem itself by giving us a new, competent president and a path out of the black hole of Trumpism.
Dick Hermann
October 2, 2020
However, should Trump win Florida, all bets as to who wins the presidency are off. It will still be an uphill climb for him, but not impossible. He would have to run the table in the rest of the battleground states like he did in 2016 while also holding on to states he won four years ago. It is noteworthy that states like Ohio and Georgia that, by rights, should be firmly in his sagging pockets, are suddenly up for grabs. In fact, Ohio, without which no Republican has ever been elected president, is giving Republicans heartburn now because their internal polls show a Biden lead.
Three battleground states other than Florida may also report their results on November 3d: Arizona, North Carolina and Ohio. Thus, by midnight or in the wee hours of November 4th, we should have a pretty good sense of where things stand: either a Biden victory or an uncertain outcome. Should Biden sweep all four of these states, look for a landslide that will blow Trump out of the water.
Twenty years after Florida’s election snafu—butterfly ballots, hanging chads, recount chaos, conflicting court decisions, etc., the Sunshine State has a rare opportunity to redeem itself by giving us a new, competent president and a path out of the black hole of Trumpism.
Dick Hermann
October 2, 2020
RSS Feed