“Perception is reality.”
--Lee Atwater
There once was a President of the United States who was a very decent man with a good heart. He was well-meaning, but stumbled when events took a bad turn. He donned a cardigan sweater, went on national television, and virtually begged the public to turn its back on cynicism and have some optimism instead. It was not a good look.
Instead, the public perceived him as weak, unable to exert control over both foreign and domestic events. Once that perception became baked in, there was nothing that could be done to reverse it. He was crushed by the landslide that cast him out of office at the next election.
Joe Biden is beginning to be perceived as another Jimmy Carter, but with an added problem: his advanced age. While 2024 is by no stretch a repeat of 1980, it contains elements of that year that should terrify Democrats. If the steady drumbeat of polls that show Donald Trump extending his lead over Biden aren’t scaring the socks off Democrats, then they aren’t paying attention.
At this point, I believe that Biden’s only hope for re-election would be if he could make this contest yet another referendum on Trump. As adverse events pile up on his watch, that may be impossible.
Ukraine funding is now at high risk. Abandoning that heroic nation’s desperate fight for freedom and democracy would also be disastrous for the West. China’s rhetorical war on Taiwan is escalating. Initially supporting Israel’s war on Gaza, right or wrong, may have been a miscalculation by the administration. Its backtrack since then is not resonating. At home, the border has been allowed to become a passionate issue and not only for Republicans. Democratic cities also criticize the administration for doing little or nothing to stanch the flood of illegal immigrants now straining their resources to the breaking point. Biden appears reluctant to use his bully pulpit to garner support for the border bill that congressional Republicans demanded until Trump ordered them to kill it. Texas has all but declared war on the federal government and, at this writing, is getting away with it. Every time Americans go grocery shopping is a bad day for Joe Biden. Prices are still high and are a gut wrench for family budgets.
Moreover, Joe Biden looks weak. His poor mobility is obvious as he shuffles to podiums and up-and-down the steps of Air Force One. He speaks in a low voice when he should shout his outrage. His affect and deportment communicate that he is an old man. He won’t get any younger by election day. Which directs more attention to his Number Two. However, his Vice President is widely viewed as not being remotely ready for prime time.
Once the voting public senses that a president has lost control over things, that is all she wrote. It will not matter that he has accomplished some great things such as the Rescue Plan, the CHIPS and Science Act, the Infrastructure Act, the Inflation Reduction Act, student loan forgiveness, strong economic growth, low unemployment, higher wages, the lowest inflation rate in the developed world, etc. If people don’t feel it, it is not happening for them. You can’t change their minds about that.
Americans do feel that things are out of control. And they blame Joe Biden.
We are a people who invariably live in the moment. “What are you doing for me now to make my life better?” overwhelms anything good that might have happened in the recent past, as well as the picture of a bright future that Biden and his party might paint should he survive the election.
You can argue all you want that there is still time to turn this thing around; that Trump was an abysmal failure as President; that he massively mismanaged the pandemic; that he tried to overthrow the government; that he is a criminal, a fraudster, a misogynistic sexual predator, a grifting, chaotic, ignorant incompetent, autocratic wannabe and a lying buffoon whose mental health is visibly deteriorating. He, however, is not going to be blamed for the present mess. Actually, he can be blamed for much of it, but the voters will not see it that way. He is not sitting in the oval office.
Joe Biden should put the democratic (small “d”) future of the country ahead of his own ambition. He should graciously get out of the race in favor of his party’s strong, younger bench. Then all of the attention would turn to Trump, his plummeting cognition and his Brobdingnagian character flaws and policy deficiencies. The nation could be saved and democracy and the rule of law could prevail and continue. Too much is at stake to allow one man’s ego to risk the nation’s ruin and the devastation that a second Trump term is sure to inflict.
There is little point in arguing that Joe Biden is in better shape mentally than 77-year old Donald Trump. Despite Trump’s daily fusillades of deranged statements, the public does not view him the same way that it does Biden. That may be because Presidents command total media attention while candidates do not. Thus, most voters do not get to witness every deranged Trump harangue.
Fighting against perceptions is like spitting into the wind. It is a strategy destined to fail.
Time to go, Joe.
Dick Hermann
February 16, 2024
--Lee Atwater
There once was a President of the United States who was a very decent man with a good heart. He was well-meaning, but stumbled when events took a bad turn. He donned a cardigan sweater, went on national television, and virtually begged the public to turn its back on cynicism and have some optimism instead. It was not a good look.
Instead, the public perceived him as weak, unable to exert control over both foreign and domestic events. Once that perception became baked in, there was nothing that could be done to reverse it. He was crushed by the landslide that cast him out of office at the next election.
Joe Biden is beginning to be perceived as another Jimmy Carter, but with an added problem: his advanced age. While 2024 is by no stretch a repeat of 1980, it contains elements of that year that should terrify Democrats. If the steady drumbeat of polls that show Donald Trump extending his lead over Biden aren’t scaring the socks off Democrats, then they aren’t paying attention.
At this point, I believe that Biden’s only hope for re-election would be if he could make this contest yet another referendum on Trump. As adverse events pile up on his watch, that may be impossible.
Ukraine funding is now at high risk. Abandoning that heroic nation’s desperate fight for freedom and democracy would also be disastrous for the West. China’s rhetorical war on Taiwan is escalating. Initially supporting Israel’s war on Gaza, right or wrong, may have been a miscalculation by the administration. Its backtrack since then is not resonating. At home, the border has been allowed to become a passionate issue and not only for Republicans. Democratic cities also criticize the administration for doing little or nothing to stanch the flood of illegal immigrants now straining their resources to the breaking point. Biden appears reluctant to use his bully pulpit to garner support for the border bill that congressional Republicans demanded until Trump ordered them to kill it. Texas has all but declared war on the federal government and, at this writing, is getting away with it. Every time Americans go grocery shopping is a bad day for Joe Biden. Prices are still high and are a gut wrench for family budgets.
Moreover, Joe Biden looks weak. His poor mobility is obvious as he shuffles to podiums and up-and-down the steps of Air Force One. He speaks in a low voice when he should shout his outrage. His affect and deportment communicate that he is an old man. He won’t get any younger by election day. Which directs more attention to his Number Two. However, his Vice President is widely viewed as not being remotely ready for prime time.
Once the voting public senses that a president has lost control over things, that is all she wrote. It will not matter that he has accomplished some great things such as the Rescue Plan, the CHIPS and Science Act, the Infrastructure Act, the Inflation Reduction Act, student loan forgiveness, strong economic growth, low unemployment, higher wages, the lowest inflation rate in the developed world, etc. If people don’t feel it, it is not happening for them. You can’t change their minds about that.
Americans do feel that things are out of control. And they blame Joe Biden.
We are a people who invariably live in the moment. “What are you doing for me now to make my life better?” overwhelms anything good that might have happened in the recent past, as well as the picture of a bright future that Biden and his party might paint should he survive the election.
You can argue all you want that there is still time to turn this thing around; that Trump was an abysmal failure as President; that he massively mismanaged the pandemic; that he tried to overthrow the government; that he is a criminal, a fraudster, a misogynistic sexual predator, a grifting, chaotic, ignorant incompetent, autocratic wannabe and a lying buffoon whose mental health is visibly deteriorating. He, however, is not going to be blamed for the present mess. Actually, he can be blamed for much of it, but the voters will not see it that way. He is not sitting in the oval office.
Joe Biden should put the democratic (small “d”) future of the country ahead of his own ambition. He should graciously get out of the race in favor of his party’s strong, younger bench. Then all of the attention would turn to Trump, his plummeting cognition and his Brobdingnagian character flaws and policy deficiencies. The nation could be saved and democracy and the rule of law could prevail and continue. Too much is at stake to allow one man’s ego to risk the nation’s ruin and the devastation that a second Trump term is sure to inflict.
There is little point in arguing that Joe Biden is in better shape mentally than 77-year old Donald Trump. Despite Trump’s daily fusillades of deranged statements, the public does not view him the same way that it does Biden. That may be because Presidents command total media attention while candidates do not. Thus, most voters do not get to witness every deranged Trump harangue.
Fighting against perceptions is like spitting into the wind. It is a strategy destined to fail.
Time to go, Joe.
Dick Hermann
February 16, 2024
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